From an actuarial perspective, a country’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO) has several implications for health plans, particularly in terms of risk assessment, forecasting

The WHO plays a significant role in global public health efforts, including surveillance, disease prevention, and response coordination, which directly or indirectly impact the operational and financial aspects of health plans.

1. Increased Uncertainty in Disease Surveillance and Epidemic Management

• Implications:

• Without WHO’s global disease monitoring and reporting systems, health plans face higher uncertainty in predicting outbreaks of infectious diseases such as influenza, COVID-19 variants, or emerging zoonotic diseases.

• Actuaries may need to rely on fragmented or less reliable data sources for modeling the frequency and severity of disease outbreaks.

• Impact on Health Plans:

• Difficulty in pricing risk-adjusted premiums due to less reliable epidemiological forecasts.

• Higher variability in claims costs related to infectious disease treatments, hospitalizations, and vaccinations.

2. Disruption in Vaccine Access and Global Supply Chains

• Implications:

• The WHO facilitates equitable vaccine distribution through programs like COVAX. Withdrawal could lead to delays or increased costs in accessing vaccines for global and emerging diseases.

• Health plans may face higher costs for vaccines due to reduced bargaining power and potential supply shortages.

• Impact on Health Plans:

• Increased per-member-per-month (PMPM) costs for preventive services like vaccinations.

• Challenges in achieving population health goals, potentially leading to higher morbidity and downstream medical costs.

3. Challenges in Standardizing Global Health Guidelines

• Implications: